Why a Polish Wind Portfolio Is Both 70 and 83 Percent Contracted

ERG has agreed to sell wind power from three Polish projects to Glencore for five years from January 2027. ERG says the contract takes about 70 percent of the portfolio's expected generation. Enerdatics' structured record puts the contracted capacity at 67.91 MW against an 82 MW portfolio, which is nearer 83 percent. Both figures describe the same agreement.

Key takeaways

• ERG SpA has signed a five-year power purchase agreement with Glencore Energy Europe B.V., a subsidiary of Glencore, covering wind generation from three Polish projects, effective from 1 January 2027.
• Glencore will contract about 164 GWh a year, roughly 820 GWh across the five-year term, and the agreement is recorded as offsite rather than supplying a Glencore facility directly.
• The portfolio totals 82 MW across three Polish wind projects: the 42 MW Radziejow, the 26 MW Slupia and the 14 MW Szydlowo.
• ERG states the agreement covers about 70 percent of the portfolio's expected electricity generation, while Enerdatics' structured contracted-capacity field for the agreement reads 67.91 MW, about 83 percent of nameplate. The two measures cannot be reconciled from the disclosed terms.
• Enerdatics records 32 Polish wind offtake agreements since the start of 2024, and exactly one of them carries a disclosed tariff.

Why do the two contracted shares disagree?

Because one counts megawatts and the other megawatt hours, and for wind those are very different claims. A share of capacity is a claim on the nameplate rating, which a wind farm reaches only in the right weather. A share of generation is a claim on what the turbines actually produce. A portfolio's load factor is its real output divided by what it would make running flat out, and for Polish onshore wind that sits nearer a third than one.

Run the numbers both ways and the gap becomes visible. 82 MW running continuously for a year would make about 718 GWh, so the 164 GWh Glencore is contracting is roughly 23 percent of that. If 164 GWh is about 70 percent of expected generation, full expected output is around 234 GWh, an implied load factor of about 33 percent, which is credible for these sites. Neither figure is wrong. But a reader who takes 67.91 MW of 82 MW and concludes the portfolio is 83 percent hedged has overstated the contracted share of revenue, because the uncontracted 30 percent of generation is not the 17 percent of capacity the other calculation implies.

The same confusion lets a project be called fully contracted while its electricity sells at whatever the market pays, which is what happens when a contract covers certificates rather than power. Enerdatics has traced one version of it in a wind farm fully contracted to Google that still sells its output into PJM. The lesson is the same in both cases: ask what unit the contract is denominated in before deciding how exposed the owner is.

What does a five-year term say about Polish wind offtake?

That short is normal here. Of the 32 Polish wind offtake agreements Enerdatics records since the start of 2024, 20 state a duration and 11 of those run five years or less. Only three run 15 years, including the 1,440 MW Polenergia and Equinor offshore agreement with Danske Commodities. The Polish corporate market has been built on three, four and five-year contracts with names like CD PROJEKT, Leroy Merlin and Grupa Kety, not on twenty-year utility offtakes.

A five-year term from 2027 leaves ERG holding the back end of three asset lives on merchant terms. That is a choice rather than a failure to sell more, and the counterparty tells you why it was available. Glencore signed through Glencore Energy Europe B.V., its European energy trading entity, and the agreement is recorded as offsite. This is not a smelter greening its own supply. It is a trading book taking a five-year position in Polish power, which is precisely the kind of counterparty willing to transact at five years and unwilling to transact at twenty. Length here is a function of who is buying.

What is Polish wind power actually worth under contract?

There is almost no way to tell. Exactly one of the 32 Polish wind offtake agreements Enerdatics records since the start of 2024 carries a disclosed tariff: a 50 MW, two-year contract between Sunflower Renewable Investments and ORBOT ENERGA announced in December 2024 at $101 per MWh. One print, on a two-year term, from a different part of the price cycle, is not a benchmark for a five-year agreement starting in 2027. The ERG agreement discloses no price either.

What is observable is volume and shape. At 164 GWh a year and 820 GWh over the term, starting 1 January 2027, the contract covers a defined block beginning after the portfolio is already operating, so ERG is selling forward from a known production history rather than underwriting an unbuilt project. That is easier for both sides to price, and one reason a trader will take it at five years. It is also why the missing price matters here: this is the cleanest kind of Polish wind offtake to benchmark, and the benchmark does not exist.

Enerdatics records 32 Polish wind offtake agreements since the start of 2024 and exactly one with a disclosed tariff, against 45 solar and six battery agreements over the same period. Wind is the second most contracted technology in that record and the least transparently priced. A long contract is also no guarantee of safety: Enerdatics has recorded a Swedish wind farm with a 29-year contract that ended up in restructuring.

What does the deal signal for Polish wind?

It signals that the buyer side of Polish wind offtake is shifting from industrial consumers to traders, and that this changes the terms on offer. A corporate buying power for its own sites wants a long contract and a predictable bill. A trading desk wants a defined volume, a term it can hedge and an exit. The second buyer is easier to find and transacts faster, and pays for that with brevity. ERG took the shorter deal on roughly 70 percent of its output and kept the rest.

The second read is about scale. Projects of 42 MW, 26 MW and 14 MW are individually too small to interest a utility offtaker and collectively worth a trader's time. Bundling them is how sub-50 MW Polish wind reaches the contracted market at all. Expect more agreements shaped like this one: several small operating projects, one trading counterparty, five years, no disclosed price, and a contracted share that reads differently depending on whether you count capacity or energy.

Frequently asked questions

How much of ERG's Polish wind portfolio is contracted to Glencore?ERG states the agreement covers about 70 percent of the portfolio's expected electricity generation, roughly 164 GWh a year. Enerdatics' structured contracted-capacity field for the agreement reads 67.91 MW against 82 MW of nameplate, about 83 percent. The two measures count different things and cannot be reconciled from the disclosed terms.

What is a load factor for a wind project?A load factor is a project's actual output divided by what it would produce running at full rating continuously. On the figures disclosed here, the implied load factor across ERG's three Polish projects is around 33 percent.

What price is ERG receiving under the agreement?No tariff was disclosed. Exactly one of the 32 Polish wind offtake agreements Enerdatics records since the start of 2024 carries a disclosed price, a 50 MW two-year contract at $101 per MWh from December 2024.

Enerdatics tracks every European offtake agreement with contracted capacity, contracted volume, term and counterparty type recorded separately, which is how 70 percent and 83 percent stop being a contradiction. Browse more transaction analysis in the Enerdatics insights archive.